Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment
I wrote on 22nd December that the best trade opportunities for the week were likely to be:
- Short of the EUR/USD currency pair. This fell by 0.08%.
- Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily (New York) close above 22,100. This did not set up.
- Long of Cocoa futures or a Cocoa ETF/ETC following a Cocoa futures close above 12,565. This did not set up.
The weekly gain of 0.08% equals 0.03% per asset.
Last week was very quiet due to the Christmas holiday, the very few key takeaways were:
- Canadian GDP was slightly higher than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% when only 0.2% was anticipated.
- US Unemployment Claims were almost exactly as expected.
Last week was basically about a continued quiet recovery in risky assets, mainly in stock markets, although this was knocked back on Friday. Bitcoin also performed poorly.
In the Forex market, the commodity currencies are notably weak, especially the AUD and the NZD, while the US Dollar and the British Pound are strong.
The Week Ahead: 30th December – 3rd January
The coming week has a very light schedule as it is the week of the New Year holiday, with many major markets on holiday this Wednesday. This means it will likely be a light week.
The coming week’s important data points are:
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- US Unemployment Claims
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday is a public holiday in Germany and Japan, and Wednesday is a widespread public holiday (New Year’s Day) almost everywhere, while Thursday is a public holiday in Switzerland and Japan. Japan is also on holiday on Friday.
Monthly Forecast January 2025
For the month of December, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value. The performance of my forecast so far is:
For the month of January, I forecast that the USD/JPY currency pair will rise in value, and that the EUR/USD currency pair will fall in value.
Weekly Forecast 29th December 2024
Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong price movements in currency crosses, which is the basis of my trading strategy.
The US Dollar was again the strongest major currency, while the Japanese Yen was again the weakest. Volatility was sharply lower last week, with fewer than 4% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. It is likely to remain very low again this week.
You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Technical Analysis
US Dollar Index
Last week, the US Dollar Index again printed a bullish candlestick that continued in the direction of the long-term bullish trend, making its highest close in more than 2 years. The price is above its price from three and six months ago, suggesting a healthy long-term bullish trend in the greenback that should be exploitable. However, the price has also again rejected the resistance level shown below at 107.95, and the candlestick is an inside bar, both of which might be bearish factors.
I have plenty of fundamental reasons to be bullish on the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt two weeks ago which took markets by surprise and triggered a rise in the greenback and a sharp selloff in stocks, while US treasury yields rose.
There is a bullish trend, but it may be a bit weak and show slowing momentum. Overall, I see the Dollar as more likely to rise than fall over the coming week. A successful breakout beyond 107.95 would make me more bullish as the price would then technically have more room to rise.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair is in a valid long-term bearish trend. This currency pair typically takes its time to move, with its trends usually including plenty of deep retracements, but for almost three weeks after plunging to a new long-term low price well below $1.0400, the price consolidated without turning definitively bearish.
This has changed over the past couple of weeks, and the downwards pressure was given a strong boost from the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish approach on rate cuts going forward. However, the bearish momentum seems to have slowed, with the price refusing to spend much time below the big round number at $1.0400 let alone the lowest recent daily close at $1.0351.
This currency pair often has very reliable trends, which is why I am interested in being short, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a new low in the daily close.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair continued to rise firmly for the third consecutive week, making its highest weekly close since last summer. This can be taken by trend traders as a signal to enter a long trade. However, it is worth nothing that the weekly candlestick was an inside bar, which can indicate loss of momentum and indecision, although as last week was a holiday week, that is probably an aggressive interpretation of the situation.
The US Dollar has continued to advance, although at a slower pace.
The Japanese Yen as the other side of this currency pair has weakened lately, especially after the Bank of Japan passed on a potential rate hike two weeks ago. There is still no work from any Bank officials about when rate hikes are likely to start.
I see this currency pair as a buy as it tends to trend quite reliably over the long term.
NZD/USD
Last week, the NZD/USD currency pair printed a fourth consecutive large, bearish candlestick, closing not far from its low. It closed at a new 2-year low, which is a significant bearish breakdown in any asset.
The Australian Dollar has got a lot of attention lately as it weakened to new long-term lows as the RBA passed on a rate cut, but it is worth noting that the New Zealand Dollar is also very weak, although the Aussie is showing slightly stronger bearish momentum than the Kiki now.
This currency pair does not trend very reliably, so I don’t take long-term trades in it, but it certainly looks very weak right now. A good approach might be to use a combination of the AUD and the NZD as the short components in any medium-term Forex trades over the coming week.
AUD/USD
Last week, the AUD/USD currency pair printed a firmly bearish candlestick, closing just a few pips off its low. It closed at a fresh 2-year low, which is a significant bearish breakdown in any asset.
The Australian Dollar has got a lot of attention lately as it weakened to new long-term lows as the RBA passed on a rate cut, but it is worth noting that the New Zealand Dollar is also very weak, as are all the commodity currencies to some extent. The Australian Dollar is the weakest of all, and the linear regression analysis shown within the price chart below suggests a reliable bearish trend has taken hold over the past several weeks
This currency pair does not trend very reliably, so I don’t take long-term trades in it, but it certainly looks very weak right now. All the commodity currencies are performing very poorly, so one idea to partially diversify risk in Forex trading might be to be short of all of them against the asset you are bullish on, especially the Australian and New Zealand Dollars.
NASDAQ 100 Index
Last week saw the NASDAQ 100 Index fall quite firmly on Friday after gaining strongly during the first three days of the week. Leading tech shares were hit by worries on Friday, although by the day’s close, the tech index had regained some of its losses.
There is a long-term bullish trend, but it may be wise to wait for the price to close at a new record high before entering a new long trade for two reasons. Firstly, because the short-term price action is not bullish, especially after Friday’s drop so we may have seen the peak for a while already. Secondly, because it is the year-end period which can see strange and volatile moves as institutions reposition, partly for changing forecasts, partly for tax reasons, which can make markets unpredictable.
I see the NASDAQ 100 Index as a buy, but only after making a new daily close above 22,100. Despite the recent bearish price action, it is worth remembering that the price is not far off its record high made just a few days ago above 22,100, and bulls could easily push the price above that level over the coming week so make a new record high.
The support at 21,023 looks strong, so another approach might be to buy after another bullish bounce from that area.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as
- Short of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close below $1.0351.
- Long of the USD/JPY currency pair.
- Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily (New York) close above 22,100.
Ready to trade our weekly Forex forecast? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers in the world.
ADVERTISEMENT:
Hello, para pengemar slots Pernah denger istilah “slot gacor”? Kalau tidak, siap-siap jatuh cinta sama konsep ini. slot gacor merupakan mesin slot yang selalu memberi win. Yup, mesin-mesin ini bisa dikatakan sebagai jagoannya buat membawa come back cuan. any way, gimana sih caranya nemuin slot demo yang benar? Tenang Bro, kita bahas tenang saja di sini
Game tergacor waktu ini hanya satu berada Indonesia yaitu yang menyediakan return on Investment terbesar
Daftar hanya di :
Informasi mengenai KING SLOT, Segera Daftar Bersama king selot terbaik dan terpercaya no satu di Indonesia. Boleh mendaftar melalui sini king slot serta memberikan hasil kembali yang paling tinggi saat sekarang ini hanyalah KING SLOT atau Raja slot paling gacor, gilak dan gaco saat sekarang di Indonesia melalui program return tinggi di kingselot serta pg king slot
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama kdwapp.com
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama jebswagstore.com
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama demoslotgacor.pro
slot demo gacor
slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot gacor
akun demo slot gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo gacor
akun slot demo gacor permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot pragmatic
akun demo slot pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo pragmatic
akun slot demo pragmatic permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun slot demo
akun slot demo permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
akun demo slot
akun demo slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
situs slot terbaru
situs slot terbaru permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
slot terbaru
slot terbaru permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama situsslotterbaru.net
luna88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama luna88.biz
magnum88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama magnum88.live
mainslot888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama mainslot888.biz
margo88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama margo88.biz
maung888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama maung888.info
menang88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama menang88.asia
mitra777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama mitra777.biz
mitra777slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama mitra777slot.biz
msislot88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama msislot88.com
nonstop888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama nonstop888.biz
nonstop888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama nonstop888slot.com
oxwin777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama oxwin777.net
oxwin88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama oxwin88.com
pahala88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pahala88.biz
pan88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pan88.info
paris777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama paris777.asia
paris777slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama paris777slot.biz
perdana88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama perdana88.biz
pesiar88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pesiar88.org
pesiarbet88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pesiarbet88.biz
pesiarbet88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pesiarbet88slot.net
planet777slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama planet777slot.biz
populer88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama populer88.info
psg777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama psg777.biz
puas88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama puas88.com
pulaujudi88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama pulaujudi88.info
queen88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama queen88.biz
quiz88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama quiz88.biz
quiz88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama quiz88slot.com
ras77 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama ras77.biz
ras77slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama ras77slot.info
rolex888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama rolex888slot.org
rusiaslot888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama rusiaslot888.com
rute88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama rute88.info
sabet88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sabet88slot.com
sakti88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sakti88.info
sakti888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sakti888.biz
sakti888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sakti888slot.info
satria88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama satria88.asia
sawit77 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sawit77.net
sayap88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sayap88.biz
sensasi77 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sensasi77.biz
sensasi77slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sensasi77slot.info
siap4d permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama siap4d.net
sinar88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sinar88slot.info
sugih88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama sugih88.org
surga8888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama surga8888.com
surga888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama surga888slot.biz
surya88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama surya88.biz
surya888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama surya888.biz
v888toto permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama v888toto.com
vegas888slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama vegas888slot.asia
venom88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama venom88slot.org
wis777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama wis777.biz
wis777slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama wis777slot.biz
xuxu88.org permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama xuxu88.org
zara88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama zara88.info
zara88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama zara88slot.net
foya888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama foya888.com
dangdut88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dangdut88.org
polaris888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama polaris888.info
cuan88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama cuan88slot.net
cuan88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama cuan88.asia
calon88slot permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama calon88slot.com
calon88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama calon88.biz
axiata88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama axiata88.org
artis77 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama artis77.info
artis77 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama artis77.biz
gwin88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gwin88.org
santai88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama santai88.org
dewanaga777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dewanaga777.biz
dewi18 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dewi18.com
dewigg88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dewigg88.com
dewijoker88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dewijoker88.asia
dombatoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dombatoto88.net
dunia30 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dunia30.com
dunia88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama dunia88.biz
erajp88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama erajp88.com
fyrewin88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama fyrewin88.com
gaca88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gaca88.com
gacha88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gacha88.biz
gacorbet999 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gacorbet999.net
gajah88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gajah88.biz
gemoyslot88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gemoyslot88.net
gencar88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gencar88.net
gocap88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gocap88.biz
gol888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gol888.org
grandbet888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama grandbet888.biz
gudangslot777 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gudangslot777.net
gwd88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama gwd88.net
harapjp88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama harapjp88.com
himalaya88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama himalaya88.biz
hondatoto88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama hondatoto88.biz
ikan88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama ikan88.biz
imperial888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama imperial888.biz
indahjp88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama indahjp88.com
indobola33 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama indobola33.com
indomax888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama indomax888.biz
indosloter88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama indosloter88.org
interwin888 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama interwin888.biz
istana88 permainan paling top dan garansi imbal balik hasil besar bersama istana88.biz
