The week will begin with the release of flash services PMI and flash manufacturing PMI data for the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. Additionally, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak about the U.K. economy at the University of Leicester’s Chancellor’s Distinguished Lecture Series in England. While audience questions are expected, market volatility is unlikely unless he provides new insights.
On Tuesday, Japan will release its monetary policy meeting minutes along with the BoJ core CPI y/y data. In the U.S., the focus will be on CB consumer confidence, new home sales data, and the Richmond manufacturing index.
Wednesday’s key highlight for Australia will be the CPI figures, while in the U.K., inflation data and the annual budget release will take center stage. In the U.S., durable goods orders m/m will also be released. On Thursday, the U.S. will publish its final GDP q/q figures along with pending home sales m/m.
Friday’s data releases include Tokyo’s core CPI y/y for Japan, retail sales data for the U.K., and GDP m/m for Canada. In the U.S., key reports will include the core PCE price index m./m, personal income and personal spending data, as well as revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Throughout the week, several FOMC members are expected to deliver remarks.
The PMI survey for the eurozone and the U.K. will be closely monitored, with the consensus pointing to an overall improvement in the data. Recently, optimism has grown among investors regarding Germany’s plans for significantly looser fiscal policy. Analysts from MUFG point out that such changes typically take time to be implemented, but they could boost business confidence in the meantime. However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs remains a challenge.
In the U.S., the consensus for CB consumer confidence is 94.2, down from the previous 98.3.
Recently, consumer sentiment has become increasingly important as it offers a clearer picture of the economy. Any further decline could signal weakening economic growth and influence future policy decisions.
According to ING analysts, the latest drop in consumer confidence can be attributed to growing household concerns over the impact of the Department of Government Efficiency’s spending cuts on jobs and entitlements. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs is raising fears of higher prices, which could reduce purchasing power and lower the standard of living.
Australia’s monthly CPI rose by 2.5% y/y in January, aligning with Westpac’s forecast and slightly below the market median of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the CPI Indicator fell by 0.2%. The trimmed mean CPI for January increased to 2.8% y/y, slightly up from 2.7% in December.
Electricity prices rose by 8.9% in January as some Queensland households exhausted their $1,000 state rebate. Despite the third installment of the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (except in Western Australia), the increase in electricity prices highlights the impact of the Queensland rebate ending.
Westpac’s forecast for February is 0.0% m/m and 2.5% y/y, as the month typically experiences seasonal softness. When seasonally adjusted, the forecast suggests a 0.2% monthly increase.
In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is 2.9%, down slightly from the previous 3.0%, while core CPI y/y is expected to ease to 3.6% from 3.7%.
Headline CPI is projected to decline marginally, but the broader trend remains upward throughout 2024. With energy prices no longer providing deflationary relief, CPI is forecast to approach 4% in the second half of the year. Services inflation is expected to improve gradually, with a modest decline in February followed by further progress in the spring.
This week the U.K. will also reveal its annual budget, but this is less likely to influence the BoE’s policy in the short term. Last week, the BoE adopted a less dovish stance, emphasizing uncertainty regarding the continuation of quarterly rate cuts.
The BoE is still anticipated to deliver a rate cut in May, but it’s unclear if it will continue with cuts at a quarterly pace after that because inflation is expected to rise in Q3.
In the U.S., the consensus for core durable goods orders m/m is 0.4%, up from the previous 0.0%, while durable goods orders m/m are expected to decline by 0.6% after a 3.2% increase in the prior month.
Analysts from Wells Fargo note that in January, the U.S. experienced a record surge in industrial supply imports from Canada, which significantly impacted Q1 GDP growth estimates, with some projections even turning negative. Durable goods orders also rose by 3.2%, marking the third-largest monthly gain in three years.
Despite these strong figures, manufacturing sector sentiment remains cautious, as regional PMIs from the Federal Reserve banks indicate contraction in New York, Texas, Richmond, and Kansas City. This suggests that the surge in imports and orders may be driven by companies pulling forward supplies to mitigate potential tariff risks. However, recent improvements in core capital goods orders hint at a possible, albeit gradual, recovery in manufacturing activity.
The consensus for Tokyo core CPI y/y is 2.2%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Analysts at ING expect a slight decline in Tokyo inflation, mainly due to energy subsidies and stable fresh food prices. However, core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, is projected to remain steady at 1.9%.
As anticipated, the BoJ kept its interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and reiterated its belief that inflation will reach its target in the second half of its three-year forecast period. However, the Bank also acknowledged persistent uncertainties regarding the impact of foreign trade policies and exchange rate.
In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.3% vs. the previous 0.3%. Personal income m/m is expected to rise by 0.4%, down from the prior 0.9%, while personal spending m/m is forecast to increase by 0.6%, rebounding from -0.2% previously.
A 0.3% increase would push the y/y measure to around 2.75%, up from 2.65% in January and this could influence the Fed’s decision to maintain current interest rates, though Chair Powell has indicated that the central bank is willing to tolerate short-term inflation fluctuations and still intends to cut rates later this year.
Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos pointed out that while CPI and PPI were softer in February compared to January, the components feeding into PCE were not.
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