Riding the Cycle
Welcome back, one and all, to the newly launched version of the indicator profiles series for 2025. We’ve made some changes, which we’ve outlined in the testing section. We’re starting with an indicator called the Cyber Cycles Oscillator or just Cyber Cycle, designed by John Ehlers. Its primary function is used for isolating the cycle component of the market from its trend counterpart. Although, this bad boy would certainly provide you with a ride to remember.
An Article
The concept was discussed in an article from Mr. Ehlers which can be found in the May 2004 issue of “Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities”. The indicator we’ll be using originates from 2007 as it was translated from Trade Station code to MT4 code and has been updated/tweaked from various platforms over the years, so multiple origin dates (for various versions) exist.
The technical video will come out in the next couple of days! Be sure to subscribe for notification…
Moving In Stereo
The default color (specifically blue) was a bit dark on our chart, so we lightened it up for better visibility. However, the degree of separation between the two lines is somewhat narrow and as a two lines cross, it just didn’t really work well. We’re going to explore a different way to use this; however, you are certainly welcome to decide which way you want to use it.
There Can Be Only One
So, as we usually like to tool with things, we’ll be removing the blue line and adding an easy to read; zero line. That being the case, this original two lines cross is now a…you guessed it; below chart, zero cross, confirmation indicator. Let’s press on and see what we can see.
Settings
This indicator only has two settings and a limited range in both, as noted below.
Price: The price data set on which the calculations are performed. You’ve got a choice between 1 — Close, 2 — Open, 3 — High, 4 — Low, 5 — Typical, and 6 — Weighted. The default setting is 4.
alpha: The coefficient used in wave component calculation. The default setting is 0.07. The effective range (we think) of testing is between 0.02 and 0.25. Any higher than that, the results get really weird. And while we never turn away weird, this kind of weird was not very helpful. Weird, right?
Use & Reuse
Earlier, we mentioned using it a bit differently than it appears. The original intent was to use it as a two lines cross, with red over blue as a short and blue over red as a long. Simple, right? However, what we noticed an overabundance of signals and discovered that it performed better as a zero cross as trends were better identified. FYI — the settings affect both lines, so you’re not missing anything.
Remember, once you’re ready to perform daily maintenance on your trades during the last 20–30 minutes of the trading day (1700 New York time), you’ll be presented with one of four options.
- Opening a trade.
- Closing a trade
- Maintaining a trade; i.e.
- Moving a stop loss level.
- Exiting a trade.
- Taking a pass (nothing to do).
Long: When the signal line crosses over zero line.
Short: When the signal line crosses below the zero line.
Crossing Over
Now that we’ve identified how we’re going to use it and what the signals look like, let’s go check them out.
Okay…so we had a few areas where multiple signals made their appearance. This actually is a good thing because it means that the indicator reacts to price change quicker for better trend interpretation. Remember, you can adjust the settings to “soften” the curve and accommodate more of those price movements, which isn’t a bad thing.
Indicator Testing: A New Look — Please Read
After receiving worldwide correspondence over the years and careful consideration, VP, and we here at Stonehill Forex decided to changed our testing protocol. Please read through the information below so you know how we will be testing from this point forward.
- Testing Time Frame: Daily.
- Testing span: Three (3) years.
- Price data: OPEN of period.
- Results: NNFX trade methodology (not the “quick” indicator testing methodology originally described in VP’s podcast from 2018).
- Based on the following criteria for all tested pairs:
- Beginning account balance — $100,000.
- Price data is from a live account.
- Risk profile — 2%.
- Leverage: 20:1.
- Two “half” trades per signal.
- Stop Loss/Take Profit levels are per NNFX:
- EUR/USD: SL = ATR x 1.50
- BTC/USD: SL = ATR x 1.25
- XAU/USD: SL = ATR x 1.25
- SPX500: SL = ATR x 1.50
- Continuation trades: Not included.
- Reported metrics:
- Signals: Total (long/short).
- Win/Loss %: Excluding “chalk” trades.***
- ROI%: Per NNFX.
- Benchmark results: Default settings.
- Basic tweaks will suggest results, which try to avoid “curve fitting” or “over fitting”. You can read more about this in the Leman Trend indicator blog HERE.
*** Chalk trades are those trades where an exit (opposite signal) was given prior to price reaching either the take profit or stop loss level.
The Main Event
Below are the results from our updated testing.
Cyberdyne Systems
Given that this is our first go with the new testing process, things look pretty good. Solid numbers all the way around…so raise a glass, sippy cup, mug, stein, or whatever gets the good stuff from the table to your face.
Resources
The Cyber Cycle indicator from John Ehlers can be found in the Stonehill Forex library for free. Going forward, we will note, “NEW” next to the most recently profiled indicator to help you locate it. When you’re ready to get it and give it a try, click HERE. Also, be sure to subscribe to the Stonehill Forex YouTube channel for the technical analysis videos. Sign up for the Advanced NNFX Course HERE.
Our only goal is to make you a better trader.
*Our published testing results are based on money management strategies employed by the NNFX system and depend on varying external factors, which may be different between individuals and their specific broker conditions. No guarantee, trading recommendations, or other market suggestions are implied. Your results and subsequent trading activities are solely your own responsibility.
BTW — Any information communicated by Stonehill Forex Limited is solely for educational purposes. The information contained within the courses and on the website neither constitutes investment advice nor a general recommendation on investments. It is not intended to be and should not be interpreted as investment advice or a general recommendation on investment. Any person who places trades, orders or makes other types of trades and investments etc. is responsible for their own investment decisions and does so at their own risk. It is recommended that any person taking investment decisions consults with an independent financial advisor. Stonehill Forex Limited training courses and blogs are for educational purposes only, not a financial advisory service, and does not give financial advice or make general recommendations on investment.
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