UPCOMING
EVENTS:
- Monday: China PMIs, German IFO.
- Tuesday: US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence.
- Wednesday: Australia Q4 CPI, BoC Policy Decision, FOMC
Policy Decision. - Thursday: Eurozone GDP and Unemployment Rate, ECB Policy
Decision, US Q4 GDP, US Jobless Claims. - Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, Japan
Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Swiss Retail Sales, France CPI,
German CPI, Canada GDP, US Core PCE, US Q4 ECI.
Tuesday
The US Consumer
Confidence is expected at 106.0 vs. 104.7 prior. Last month, consumer confidence dropped to 104.7 vs. 112.8 in
November.
Dana M. Peterson,
Chief Economist at The Conference Board said: “The recent rebound in consumer
confidence was not sustained in December as the Index dropped back to the middle
of the range that has prevailed over the past two years”.
“While weaker
consumer assessments of the present situation and expectations contributed to
the decline, the expectations component saw the sharpest drop. Consumer
views of current labour market conditions continued to improve,
consistent with recent jobs and unemployment data, but their assessment of
business conditions weakened.”
This might have
been just an outlier among lots of upbeat economic data. Overall, we are
still in the range that has prevailed over the past two years, and we
haven’t got any strong catalyst that could suggest a sudden weakening in the
economy.
US Consumer Confidence
Wednesday
The Australian Q4
CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.8% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at
0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. The RBA is focused on the underlying inflation figures
with the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y expected at 3.3% vs. 3.5% prior, while the Q/Q
reading is seen at 0.6% vs. 0.8% prior.
As a reminder, the
RBA softened further its stance at the last policy decision as it nears
the first rate cut. The market is seeing a 54% chance of a 25 bps cut in
February although the first fully priced cut is seen in April.
The latest Australian Employment report came in a touch softer than expected but
didn’t change much in terms of market pricing which was influenced more by the
recent Australian Monthly
CPI that showed core
inflation easing with the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y coming in at 3.2%.
A soft Q4 CPI
report will likely see the market sealing a rate cut in February already, while higher than expected figures might
keep it on the edge with the probabilities favouring an April action.
Australia Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
The BoC is expected
to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bringing the policy rate to 3.00%. As a
reminder, the BoC cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last policy meeting but dropped the line saying “if the economy evolves broadly in line with
our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further”, which
suggests that we reached the peak in “dovishness” and the
central bank will now switch to 25 bps cuts and will slow the pace of easing.
The recent Canadian Employment report was much stronger than expected, while the CPI report came mostly in line with forecasts showing once again
that the central bank got inflation back under control.
The CAD
hasn’t responded much to economic data recently as the focus switched to
Trump’s tariffs threats and
the negative economic impact they could have on Canada. Trump said that he
intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada as soon as February 1st.
Despite the
general US Dollar weakness on tariffs optimism triggered by soft Trump’s
comments on China, the Canadian Dollar underperformed significantly its peers
with the USD/CAD rate remaining stuck in a roughly 150 pips range.
Bank of Canada
The Fed is
expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. As a reminder,
the central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps at the last meeting in December
raising growth and inflation projections and lowering the expected rate cuts in
2025 from 100 bps to 50 bps (in line with market’s pricing at that time).
The central
bank will likely stress the need to wait a bit more for the next rate cut to
get more economic data and more clarity on Trump’s policies. As Fed’s Waller recently mentioned, the pace of rate cuts will
depend on inflation progress. He didn’t even rule out completely a March cut which was taken as a dovish surprise by the market.
The recent US
inflation data came in softer than expected and marked the peak in the
inflation hysteria and the repricing in rate cuts expectations. Before the
data, the market was even pricing in the chances on no rate cuts in 2025.
That was the
signal that the pricing was getting too much aggressive and in fact we just
needed a couple of benign inflation reports to get it back to price in almost
two rate cuts by the end of the year (which would be in line with the latest
Fed’s projections).
Overall, this
decision is unlikely to influence markets expectations too much as the data in
Q1 is what really matters. Despite the expected cautiousness, a bit more
positive talk on inflation could see the US Dollar weakening further (as
long as Trump doesn’t spoil the party).
Federal Reserve
Thursday
The ECB is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bring the policy rate to 2.75%.
The recent Eurozone CPI report showed core inflation remaining pretty
sticky, especially on the services side.
Moreover, despite
all the doom and gloom, the latest Flash PMIs showed a notable rebound in economic activity which might even get stronger if the Russia-Ukraine
war gets settled.
Also, news on EU to push AI, advanced research and clean tech in bid
to compete with the US and China got louder with pressures to reduce and
simplify regulations and increase investment. The prospects of a great 2025 for
the Euro and European equities strengthen by the day.
European Central Bank
The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial
Claims remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims continue to hover around
cycle highs although we’ve seen some easing recently.
This week Initial
Claims are expected at 220K vs. 223K prior, while there’s no consensus for Continuing
Claims at the time of writing although the prior release showed an increase to
1899K vs. 1853K prior.
US Jobless Claims
Friday
The Tokyo Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs. 2.4% prior. The BoJ hiked interest rates by 25 bps
the last week but didn’t offer anything in terms of forward guidance with Governor
Ueda saying that they have any preconceived idea and that they will make a
decision at each policy meeting by examining economic and price developments as
well as risks. The market doesn’t expect another rate hike any time soon
with the next one seen in October at the earliest.
Tokyo Core CPI YoY
The US PCE Y/Y is
expected at 2.6% vs. 2.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.1%
prior. The Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.8% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.1% prior.
Forecasters
can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and PPI are out, so the market
already knows what to expect. Therefore, unless we see a deviation from the expected numbers, it
shouldn’t affect the current market’s pricing.
US Core PCE YoY
The US Q4
Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected at 0.9% vs. 0.8% prior. This is the most
comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s not as
timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches this
indicator closely.
US Employment Cost Index
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