Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment
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Long of Corn futures following a daily close above 475 (CORN etf can also be used). This set up on Monday, and the price rose by a further 1.64% over the rest of the week.
The weekly loss of 7.28% equals 2.43% per asset.
Last week saw several key data releases, although the directional movement was a little below average:
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US PPI – this inflation indicator rose by only 0.2% month-on-month, while an increase of 0.4% was expected, giving a dovish surprise and helping to produce a market where stocks could rise.
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US Retail Sales – this was notably slower than expected, at a month-on-month increase of only 0.4% when 0.6% was expected, supporting the inflation-indicated outlook of a slowing US economy.
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UK CPI (inflation) – this came in a fraction lower than expected at an annualized rate of 2.5% when 2.6% was expected.
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UK GDP – lower than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, together with the inflation data, it is suggestive of a slowing economy.
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US Unemployment Claims – this was as expected.
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UK Retail Sales – this was much worse than expected, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.3% when an increase of 0.4% was seen as likely. This suggests a markedly slowing British economy.
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Australian Unemployment Rate – as expected this was unchanged at 4.0%.
Last week’s key takeaway was an improvement in risk sentiment and a minor decline in the US Dollar due to weaker than expected US inflation and PPI data, which boosted the chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s March meeting.
The British Pound is notably weak in the Forex market, while the Japanese Yen is particularly strong. The weakness in the Pound was given legs by weaker than expected UK CPI (inflation) and retail sales data. The Japanese Yen has a tailwind because markets increasingly expect that the Bank of Japan might raise its interest rate at its policy meeting this week.
The Week Ahead: 20th – 24th January
The coming week has a lighter schedule of releases, so we are very likely to see a relatively low level of activity and volatility in the Forex market.
The coming week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:
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Bank of Japan Policy Rate & Monetary Policy Statement
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New Zealand CPI (inflation)
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USA, Germany, UK, France Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI
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UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims)
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Canada Unemployment Claims
Monday is a public holiday in the USA.
Monthly Forecast January 2025
For January, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value and that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value. The performance so far of this forecast is:
Weekly Forecast 19 January 2025
Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong price movements in currency crosses, which is the basis of my trading strategy.
The Japanese Yen was the strongest major currency last week, while the British Pound was again the weakest. Volatility was lower last week, with only 7% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. It is likely to increase or remain at a similar level over the coming week.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
Technical Analysis
US Dollar Index
Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a near-doji candlestick that continued the long-term bullish trend, again bullishly breaking out to make its highest close in more than 2 years. However, the week did close slightly down, indicating a bearish retracement. The price is above its price from three and six months ago, suggesting a healthy long-term bullish trend in the greenback that should be exploitable. Bullish signs remain present.
The US Dollar took a bit of a knock last week, mostly due to natural profit-taking but also due to lower-than-expected inflation and PPI data, which suggest a stronger case for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.
The Dollar is likely to rise over the coming week. The price has room to rise to at least the next resistance level at 110.00. However, it is worth noting that the price is not far from that level.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD currency pair is in a valid long-term bearish trend. It fell again last week, although the weekly candlestick shown in the price chart below looks a little indecisive, suggesting bearish momentum has slowed.
The British Pound was the weakest of all major currencies last week and this pair is in focus because both currencies are newsworthy.
The British Pound is weak due to continually poor UK economic data releases which suggest the British economy is strongly slowing down and might even go into recession. Another problem is that the markets just do not really believe in the new British government’s economic projections, causing a credibility gap which has led options markets to short the Pound quite strongly.
The US Dollar hit a new 2-year high last week, and although it has pulled back on an increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts following weaker Core CPI data, there is plenty of residual strength left in the Dollar.
I see this currency pair as an obvious sell, although not as much as I did last week. Technically, bears should watch out as the price is near a major bullish inflection point just above $1.2100, which can be seen quickly by glancing at the price chart below.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair is in a valid long-term bearish trend. The price again reached a new 2-year low last week but rebounded to end the week higher for the first time in 5 weeks.
This currency pair often has very reliable trends, so I am generally interested in being short. The bearish retracement we have just seen is probably over, with the price falling over the course of Friday last week.
The Euro is not especially weak, with the bearish momentum being driven mostly by a strong US Dollar which is advancing almost everywhere.
I see this currency pair as a sell. It is probably the most reliable trade opportunity right now in the entire Forex market, except maybe the GBP/USD currency pair, which is probably dragging the price here lower.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair is still technically within a long-term bearish trend, as its volatility has become so high that it can retrace several hundred pips in price and yet remain within 3 ATRs of its peak.
The US Dollar is in a long-term bullish trend, but the problem for bulls here is that the Japanese Yen has really strengthened as markets start to expect the Bank of Japan will be likely to hike its interest rate this coming week. Bank officials have strongly hinted that they want to do this, if they can justify it by the latest economic data releases showing Japanese wage growth.
I do not have much faith in the long-term bullish trend, but this pair has volatility and so it can be very interesting to skilled traders, especially day traders, who can read the days where directional price movement is likely.
Bitcoin
Since falling to a new 2-month low below $91k a couple of weeks ago, the Bitcoin price printed a daily pin bar which was very bullish as it rejected that low, and Bitcoin has continued to rise ever since. It is now in sight of the record high it printed last month. A daily close above $106,187 will be a new record closing price in New York and could be a good long trade entry signal.
Bitcoin got a major boost after President-Elect Trump won the US Presidential election last November, as he was seen as much more sympathetic to cryptocurrency than the Democratic candidate. However, the strong post-election rally quickly faltered after breaking above the big round number at $100,000. As President-Elect Trump is sworn into office tomorrow, we may see Bitcoin get another psychologically driven boost.
Bitcoin is also getting a tailwind from improving stock markets, especially in the USA, as Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset, and not like a hedge as is commonly supposed.
Bitcoin has made some meteoric and highly profitable bullish breakouts in recent years, and I think they are all worth trying to participate in, so I will be going long if we get a new record high daily close in New York this week.
Corn Futures
Last Friday, Corn futures printed a strong and large bullish candlestick, which closed at a new 1-year high closing price. The price also cleared the inflection point at 475 last week. The price closed very near its weekly high at the end of last week. These are all bullish signs.
Taking long trades when major commodities break out to new 6-month highs has historically been a very profitable trading strategy, which is the main reason that I want to be long here.
Unfortunately, Corn futures are quite expensive and just too large for retail traders, but there is an ETF called CORN which can be used to participate in increases in the price of corn. Here, this ETF is outperforming the relevant futures, which puts a bit of a question mark above corn.
Bottom Line
I see the best trading opportunities this week as:
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